REDUCED TRANSMISSION RISKS FOR PASSENGER OPERATIONS DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC

In the aircraft cabin, passengers must share a confined environment with other passengers during boarding, flight, and disembarkation, which poses a risk for virus transmission and requires risk-appropriate mitigation strategies. Spacing between passenger groups during boarding and disembarkation reduces the risk of transmission, and optimized sequencing of passenger groups helps to significantly reduce boarding and disembarkation time. We considered passenger groups to be an important factor in overall operational efficiency. The basic idea of our concept is that the members of a group should not be separated, since they were already traveling as a group before entering the aircraft. However, to comply with COVID-19 regulations, different passenger groups should be separated spatially. For the particular challenge of disembarkation, we assume that passenger groups will be informed directly when they are allowed to leave for disembarkation. Today, cabin lighting could be used for this information process, but in a future digitally connected cabin, passengers could be informed directly via their personal devices. These devices could also be used to check the required distances between passengers. The implementation of optimized group sequencing has the potential to significantly reduce boarding and disembarkation times, taking into account COVID-19 constraints. © 2022 ICAS. All Rights Reserved.

Corona Larona: A 2.5D Mobile Game Advocating COVID-19 Safety Protocols and Mitigation Strategies

Governments and health agencies around the world have been at the forefront of managing the COVID-19 pandemic. To control the spread of the outbreak, mandatory safety protocols have been put into effect. Despite the continuous development and strict enforcement of these preventive guidelines, non-compliance with these mandatory safety protocols has been reported. Getting the message to the public is one of the key challenges in convincing people to follow mitigation policies. In this study, we employed the media of video games to advocate for COVID-19 safety protocols. We developed a video game called "Corona Larona"that features microgames with action gameplay playable on a mobile platform. Our video game concentrated on several preventive measures such as physical distancing, hand washing, wearing face masks as well as basic knowledge about the virus using in-game multiple choice questions. To our knowledge, this is the first video game dedicated to the COVID-19 outbreak and the mandatory safety protocols. In a time when many people play video games to survive their current situation, the Corona Larona game is a strategic example of using and maximizing this form of media for a more noble purpose. © 2022 IEEE.

The Implementation of CDC COVID-19 Recommendations for Testing, Isolation, Quarantine and Movement at Emergency Intake Sites of Unaccompanied Children in the United States, April 1-May 31, 2021.

In March 2021, Emergency Intake Sites (EIS) were created to address capacity shortfalls during a surge of Unaccompanied Children at the Mexico-United States land border. The COVID-19 Zone Plan (ZP) was developed to decrease COVID-19 transmission. COVID-19 cumulative percent (%) positivity was analyzed to evaluate the impact of the ZP, venue type and bed capacity across EIS from April 1-May 31, 2021. Results: Of 11 EIS sites analyzed, 54% implemented the recommended ZP. The overall % positivity was 2.47% (95% CI 2.39-2.55). The % positivity at EIS with the ZP, 1.83% (95% CI 1.71-1.95), was lower than that at EIS without the ZP, 2.83%, ( 95% CI 2.72-2.93), and showed a lower 7-day moving average of % positivity. Conclusion: Results showed a possible effect of the ZP on % positivity when controlling for venue type and bed capacity in a specific EIS group comparison, indicating that all three variables could have had effect on % positivity. They also showed that smaller intake facilities may be recommendable during public health emergencies.

Mitigating the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on vulnerable populations: Lessons for improving health and social equity.

The COVID-19 pandemic had an inequitable and disproportionate impact on vulnerable populations, reversing decades of progress toward healthy populations and poverty alleviation. This study examines various programmatic tools and policy measures used by governments to support vulnerable populations during the pandemic. A comparative case study of 15 countries representing all World Health Organization's regions offers a comprehensive picture of countries with varying income statuses, health system arrangements and COVID-19 public health measures. Through a systematic desk review and key informant interviews, we report a spectrum of mitigation strategies deployed in these countries to address five major types of vulnerabilities (health, economic, social, institutional and communicative). We found a multitude of strategies that supported vulnerable populations such as migrant workers, sex workers, prisoners, older persons and school-going children. Prioritising vulnerable populations during the early phase of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns, direct financial subsidies and food assistance programmes were the most common measures reported. Additionally, framing public health information and implementing culturally sensitive health promotion interventions helped bridge the communication barriers in certain instances. However, these measures remain insufficient to protect vulnerable populations comprehensively. Our findings point to the need to expand fiscal space for health, enlarge healthcare coverage, incorporate equity principles in all policies, leverage technology, multi-stakeholder co-production of policies and tailored community engagement mechanisms.

Mitigation Policies for Fashion Smes Affected by The Covid-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on MSMEs, especially in the food and beverage sector, creative industries and agriculture, both in terms of sales, financing, distribution of goods and the difficulty of raw materials. In 2019, the Creative Economy Agency established Denpasar City (the capital city of Bali Province) as one of ten Creative Regencies/Cities in Indonesia with the leading sub-sector of fashion. The development of the leading fashion sub-sector in Denpasar City is certainly inseparable from the role of MSMEs in the fashion sector, where MSME fashion in Denpasar City is the largest compared to other sectors. The purpose of this study was to analyze the mitigation strategy of fashion SMEs affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This research is exploratory research, where data is collected through FGD instruments. Furthermore, the collected data is analyzed using prospective analysis techniques with MULTIPOL tools that can help develop a policy path based on scenarios, policies, criteria, and actions. The scenario of fashion SMEs in Bali is divided into ethnic fashion SMEs and non-ethnic fashion SMEs. In ethnic fashion SMEs, the superior policy is the policy of strengthening capital, followed by establishing partnerships. use of digital technology, and finally market orientation outside Bali. Meanwhile, for non-ethnic fashion SMEs, what is superior is the policy of establishing partnerships, followed by market orientation policies outside Bali, the use of digital technology and strengthening capital. Online marketing action excels in all policies, followed by product development and forward and backward integration.

Exploring Consumers Risk Mitigation Strategies in E-Commerce: A Qualitative Study of High-Risk Transactions

The recent Covid-19 pandemic has led to a sharp increase in online shopping. While the promises of shopping on e-commerce platforms are vast, there are simultaneously novel and exacerbated risks compared to traditional brick-and-mortar retail purchases. Existing research outlines numerous risk dimensions associated with online shopping. In addition, scholars examine the underlying reasons for consumers' risk perceptions, such as the inability of physical quality checks. However, there is a lack of research investigating how consumers attempt to navigate and mitigate risk perceptions when confronted with a high-risk online transaction. To address this research gap, we conducted 18 semi-structured interviews with consumers who had recently performed an online transaction associated with high-risk perceptions. Our study contributes to the existing literature by identifying an affective and cognitive risk mitigation strategy and respective underlying mechanisms. Notably, we find that online social networks play a central role in shaping consumers' risk perceptions. © 2023 IEEE Computer Society. All rights reserved.

Tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolution

The rapid succession of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 emphasizes the need to understand the factors driving pathogen evolution. Here, we investigate a possible tradeoff between the rate of progression of a disease and its reproductive number. Using an SEIR framework, we show that in the exponential growth phase of an epidemic, there is an optimal disease duration that balances the advantage of a fast disease progression with that of causing many secondary infections. This result offers one possible explanation for the ever shorter generation times of novel variants of SARS-CoV-2, as it progressed from the original strain to the Alpha, Delta, and, from late 2021 onwards, to several Omicron variant subtypes. In the endemic state, the optimum disappears and longer disease duration becomes advantageous for the pathogen. However, selection pressures depend on context: mitigation strategies such as quarantine of infected individuals may slow down the evolution towards longer-lasting, more infectious variants. This work then suggests that, in the future, the trend towards shorter generation times may reverse, and SARS-CoV-2 may instead evolve towards longer-lasting variants. © 2023 authors. Published by the American Physical Society. Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article's title, journal citation, and DOI.

COVID-19 and supply chain risk mitigation: a case study from India

PurposeThis study prioritizes the supply chain risks (SCRs) and determines risk mitigation strategies (RMSs) for the Indian apparel industry to mitigate the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic disruption.Design/methodology/approachInitially, 23 SCRs within the apparel industry are identified through an extant literature review. Further, a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is utilized to prioritize the SCRs considering the epidemic situations to understand the criticality of SCRs and determine appropriate RMSs to mitigate the shock of SCRs during COVID-19.FindingsThis study prioritized and ranked the SCRs within the Indian apparel industry based on their severity during the COVID-19 disruption. Results indicate that the demand uncertainty and pandemic disruption risks are the most critical. Based on the SCRs, the present work evaluated and suggested the flexibility and postponement mitigation strategies for the case under study.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has novel implications to the existing literature on supply chain risk management in the form of the FAHP framework. Supply chain practitioners from the other industrial sectors can extend the proposed FAHP framework to assess the SCRs and identify suitable mitigation strategies. The results aid the practitioners working in an apparel industry to benchmark and deploy the proposed RMSs in their firm.Originality/valueThe present study is a unique and earlier attempt to develop a quantitative framework using FAHP to evaluate and determine the risk mitigation strategy for managing the SCRs during the coronavirus epidemic.

Implementation of Key Risk Mitigation Strategies and Learnings Enabling Successful Efficient Execution in Malikai Phase 2 Project Mooring Campaigns

Malikai Tension Leg Platform (TLP) being the first TLP in Malaysian waters, was installed in 2016 at a water depth of 500m. The mooring system was designed with tender-assisted drilling (TAD) features to allow for station keeping activities during drilling operations. Malikai Phase 2 is brownfield project to develop six infill wells to be drill using existing well slots available on TLP. To drive project value of replication and standardization, similar TAD vessel was used as per Phase 1 campaign. The project execution strategy emphasizes on the reuse of Phase 1 mooring component to lower the CAPEX and re-certification of the mooring component were done to maintain the integrity of the hardware. Existence of porkmarks and large part of geo-hazard on the Malikai seafloor, remain one of the main challenges to safety pre-lay polyester on the selected routes. Furthermore, due to Covid-19 pandemic the shipment of the polyester ropes was delayed. Improvement was made in the offshore installation methodology with introduction of the direct hook-up methods to eliminate the risk of polyester damaging during pre-laid, eliminate the chain twists issue on ground chain section and that also help in preserving project schedule. The development of innovative contracting and supply chain management strategies such as competitive bidding exercise and leverage on contractor expertise to drive the efficient execution. Virtual working setting is a new way of working in marine assurances due to Covid-19 travel restrictions. This paper will provide a board overview of various aspects of Malikai Phase 2 brownfield development during pandemic condition while highlighting key success factors and lesson learned for future projects. Copyright © 2022, Offshore Technology Conference.

Mathematical Modeling and Computing to Study the Influence of Quarantine Levels and Common Mitigation Strategies on the Spread of COVID-19 on a Higher Education Campus

In this work, we develop a mathematical model to study the COVID-19 dynamics on a higher education campus. The proposed model builds on successful compartmental models that describe the dynamics of the spread of disease between multiple student sub-populations within a closed environment. The model assumes no vaccinations and includes three different levels of quarantine adherence to represent student behavior with the common mitigation strategies of face mask usage and random testing. A detailed analysis of the model including boundedness and positivity of the solutions along with a derivation of the basic reproduction number for the model is presented. Additionally, we also create an interactive graphical user interface through a dashboard for public use. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

A review on indoor airborne transmission of COVID-19– modelling and mitigation approaches

In the past few years, significant efforts have been made to investigate the transmission of COVID-19. This paper provides a review of the COVID-19 airborne transmission modeling and mitigation strategies. The simulation models here are classified into airborne transmission infectious risk models and numerical approaches for spatiotemporal airborne transmissions. Mathematical descriptions and assumptions on which these models have been based are discussed. Input data used in previous simulation studies to assess the dispersion of COVID-19 are extracted and reported. Moreover, measurements performed to study the COVID-19 airborne transmission within indoor environments are introduced to support validations for anticipated future modeling studies. Transmission mitigation strategies recommended in recent studies have been classified to include modifying occupancy and ventilation operations, using filters and air purifiers, installing ultraviolet (UV) air disinfection systems, and personal protection compliance, such as wearing masks and social distancing. The application of mitigation strategies to various building types, such as educational, office, public, residential, and hospital, is reviewed. Recommendations for future works are also discussed based on the current apparent knowledge gaps covering both modeling and mitigation approaches. Our findings show that different transmission mitigation measures were recommended for various indoor environments;however, there is no conclusive work reporting their combined effects on the level of mitigation that may be achieved. Moreover, further studies should be conducted to understand better the balance between approaches to mitigating the viral transmissions in buildings and building energy consumption. © 2022

Modeling shield immunity to reduce COVID-19 transmission in long-term care facilities.

PURPOSE: Nursing homes and long-term care facilities have experienced severe outbreaks and elevated mortality rates of COVID-19. When available, vaccination at-scale has helped drive a rapid reduction in severe cases. However, vaccination coverage remains incomplete among residents and staff, such that additional mitigation and prevention strategies are needed to reduce the ongoing risk of transmission. One such strategy is that of "shield immunity", in which immune individuals modulate their contact rates and shield uninfected individuals from potentially risky interactions. METHODS: Here, we adapt shield immunity principles to a network context, by using computational models to evaluate how restructured interactions between staff and residents affect SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics. RESULTS: First, we identify a mitigation rewiring strategy that reassigns immune healthcare workers to infected residents, significantly reducing outbreak sizes given weekly testing and rewiring (48% reduction in the outbreak size). Second, we identify a preventative prewiring strategy in which susceptible healthcare workers are assigned to immunized residents. This preventative strategy reduces the risk and size of an outbreak via the inadvertent introduction of an infectious healthcare worker in a partially immunized population (44% reduction in the epidemic size). These mitigation levels derived from network-based interventions are similar to those derived from isolating infectious healthcare workers. CONCLUSIONS: This modeling-based assessment of shield immunity provides further support for leveraging infection and immune status in network-based interventions to control and prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Artificial Intelligence Based CoughMonitoring System For Covid-19

Infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus results in Covid 19, an infectious illness. Most persons who get Coronavirus will only experience mild to moderate symptoms and will get better without any special care. Some people get very sick and need medical attention. The rising mortality toll from COVID-19 underscores the importance of developing methods for early detection of the disease, which might aid in containing the epidemic and facilitating the creation of tailored mitigation strategies. Current research in chaotic dynamics indicates that coughs and other vocal sounds include lung health data that can be used for symptomatic reasons. Mel frequencies Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) are applied to cough samples, and then the audio data from coughs is fed into a GridsearchCV model using a KNN-based classification method. Our model was developed using 217 samples from training data and 55 from testing data. Cough tests conducted on both males and females are included in the dataset. An evaluation found that the model had an accuracy of 83.3%. © 2022 IEEE.

Discrete event simulation of a drive-through COVID-19 mass vaccination model: senior population prioritization strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the normal operations of countries around the world, which applied different containment and mitigation policies, such as mask-wearing, social distancing, quarantine, and lockdowns, to limit the spread of the virus. More recent mitigation efforts include vaccination strategies, since various vaccines have been authorized for emergency use for the prevention of COVID-19. In fact, vaccination is one of the best proactive mitigation strategies against the virus spread. Mass vaccination strategies have been undertaken by multiple research and development teams in the past when the public needed to be vaccinated on a large scale due to a pandemic, such as the seasonal flu or H1N1. Drive through vaccination, in particular, is more convenient and safer than walk-in vaccinations in clinics due the nature of the contagious virus. In this paper, we present the implementation of a discrete event simulation model of a drive through clinic for mass vaccinations of patients, while prioritizing the senior population. The simulation output is examined in terms of average waiting time in the queue to get vaccinated, number of patients getting vaccinated per week, and utilization of the medical resources. The results are expected to provide insights into the allocation of medical resources across lanes and prioritization strategies for the senior population to achieve higher vaccination rates, while reducing the waiting time in queue. © 2021 The Authors.

Strategic Decision Making for a Resilient Supply Chain during a Pandemic

Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, many organizations experienced supply chain disruptions to various degrees. Due to the nature and magnitude of the pandemic, many commonly practiced supply chain practices became impractical, highlighting the importance of building up resilience in the supply chain network to enable them to operate effectively in uncertain conditions. In an organizational context, modern-day supply chains are prone to experience quick disruptions because of their inherent complexity. Due to the nature of the Sri Lankan economy, the scope of disruption to trade and the ripple effect of disruptions to associated industries would be different from those of developed nations. The objective of this study is to understand the concept of supply chain resilience and its applicability when facing a critical disruptive force such as a pandemic. A thorough literature review and interviews were conducted with leading FMCG companies in Sri Lanka to determine how supply chain resilience could be achieved by overcoming the most critical risks encountered during a pandemic. Based on the data collected, a conceptual framework was developed to support strategic decision-making to achieve supply chain resilience during high-impact low-frequency disruptions such as a pandemic. © 2022 IEEE.

Mitigating Epidemics Through Vaccination, Treatment, and Awareness Programs

We modify the standard susceptible-infected-recovered-dead epidemic model to include three mitigation strategies, vaccination, treatment, and awareness programs;and compute its epidemic threshold. Further, we formulate an optimization problem to calculate the optimum rates of the mitigation strategies. The optimization problem minimizes a cost function that takes into account: (i) The deaths caused by the epidemic. (ii) Indirect costs incurred due to loss in health of the population (e.g. temporary loss of productivity due to absence from work caused by infection). (iii) Costs of employing the mitigation strategies (costs of vaccination, treatment, and running awareness programs). We have tuned the epidemic model for COVID-19 pandemic and computed the optimal strategies. Results show that the epidemic peak reduces when optimal strategy is employed, leading to a better epidemic management. Further, importance of the vaccination strategy increases with the increasing spreading rate (virulence) of the epidemic. © 2022 ACM.

Numerical Simulations of the Effects of the Radiant Floor Combined with the Displacement Ventilation of the Spread of Exhaled Contaminants in the Confined Space

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen the importance of confined space ventilation to reduce the risks of cross infection. To evaluate and compare the relative impacts of different mitigation strategies is important in order to reduce the risk of infection in a given situation. Using CFD methods, this study aimed to modulate the spread of exhaled contaminants in a floor-heated and ventilated space. Three different inlet velocities and four floor temperatures were used to assess the effect of the radiant floor combined with the displacement ventilation (RFDV) on room airflow and pollutant spread. Results show that RFDV reduced exposure to infection from 87% to 50% compared to the reference case. The inlet velocity is required to increase when the floor temperature is higher to decrease the contaminant exposure risk to in the room. This research provides a timely and necessary study of the ventilation and heating systems. These findings are expected to be useful for designing future of RFDV. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Critical policies disparity of the first and second waves of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to compare the differences in COVID-19 prevention and control policies adopted by the United Kingdom (UK) during the first wave (31 January 2020 to 6 September 2020) and the second wave (7 September 2020 to 12 April 2021), and analyze the effectiveness of the policies, so as to provide empirical experience for the prevention and control of COVID-19. Methods We systematically summarized the pandemic prevention and control policies of the UK from official websites and government documents, collated the epidemiological data from 31 January 2020 to 12 April 2021, and analyzed the effectiveness of the two waves of pandemic prevention and control policies. RESULTS: The main pandemic prevention and control policies adopted by the UK include surveillance and testing measures, border control measures, community and social measures, blockade measures, health care measures, COVID-19 vaccination measure, and relaxed pandemic prevention measures. The new cases per day curve showed only one peak in the first wave and two peaks in the second wave. The number of new cases per million in the second wave was much higher than that in the first wave, and the curve fluctuated less. The difference between mortality per million was small, and the curve fluctuated widely. CONCLUSION: During the first and second waves of COVID-19, the UK implemented three lockdowns and managed to slow the spread of the pandemic. The UK's experience in mitigating the second wave proves that advancing COVID-19 vaccination needs to be accompanied by ongoing implementation of non-pharmacological interventions to reduce the transmission rate of infection. And a stricter lockdown ensures that the containment effect is maximized during the lockdown period. In addition, these three lockdowns featured distinct mitigation strategies and the UK's response to COVID-19 is mitigation strategy that reduce new cases in the short term, but with the risk of the pandemic rebound.

URBAN FRAGMENTATION AND COVID-19 IN THE GAUTENG CITY REGION DIVERGING VULNERABILITIES, INFECTIONS AND POLICIES

Urban spatial analyses of the COVID-19 pandemic try to relate the patterns of the spread of the virus to other factors, e.g. vulnerability, as supported by research on health risks of marginalized neighbourhoods. Focussing on the Gauteng City Region in South Africa, we assess whether there is a match between the effects of the pandemic, the strategies to combat the disease, and predicted vulnerabilities. While documented infection patterns are not indicating peripheral areas as most affected, disease control interventions can increase related inequalities. Reflections on South African government challenges provide the context for these concepts and strategies, suggesting that the spatial framing of health and vulnerabilities needs to be adapted.

Tourists’ Behaviour in a Post-pandemic Context: The Consumption Variables—A Meta-Analysis

Although tourism, as a system, develops risk prevention and mitigation strategies, the direct, indirect, and induced generated shock by the Covid-19 pandemic is different when compared to previous high-impact events. This pandemic is more intense and conducive to structural changes. In this context, tourists’ perceptions affect their behaviour and decisions, with adverse results in Tourism consumption, and the safety, protection, and health risks generate a cause-effect relationship on the specificities of destinations, the valences of infrastructure, compliance with protocols, and the adoption of good practices (Seabra et al. in Int J Tour Cities 7:463–491, [1]). The prevailing opinion amongst specialists is that Tourism will only reach pre-Covid levels between 2023 and 2024 whereby the proposed approach and methodology prove to be opportune because they allow a more detailed knowledge of the characterization of demand and constitute a relevant information base for structuring the offer. Thus, through the systematic review of the literature, it is relevant to approach the behaviour of tourists in a post-pandemic context, through the meta-analysis of studies carried out in 2020 and 2021, emphasizing the conclusions obtained, the dynamics of their comparison, and their potential impact. The results achieved suggest the need to readjust models, methods, and processes, as well as to reconfigure means and interactions, in order to add value in the design of instruments, in the implementation of solutions and, in the management of expectations. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.